Kalibri Labs Launches Predictive Tool to Support Recovery Planning

Analytics

Rockville, Md.—Kalibri Labs recently announced upgrades to its database, including the ability to provide RevPAR, occupancy, and ADR for future dates and to create greater visibility at the market/submarket level. The Kalibri Labs database contains daily transaction data sourced directly from almost 35,000 hotels in the United States calculating revenue, ADR, occupancy, rate category contributions, channel mix, arrival/departure dates, lead time, length of stay, loyalty contribution, and corresponding costs of acquisition measures.

“While these upgrades had been underway with our R&D team for almost two years, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, their release couldn’t have come at a better time,” noted Cindy Estis Green, founder and CEO of Kalibri Labs. “With the industry facing a daunting challenge emerging from the COVID pandemic, the need to understand more granular market dynamics and patterns of recovery is greater than ever.”

The first improvement is the extension of the Kalibri Labs data to include forward-looking revenue, ADR, occupancy, and RevPAR. The Kalibri Labs database now has all performance metrics for every U.S. market, submarket, and individual hotel available from 2015 through 2021, with a continuous rolling weekly update of 12-18 months into the future. This forward-looking data is available in all Kalibri Labs products, including the HummingbirdPXM digital platform as well as market and submarket reports. Using predictive modeling and machine learning, future forecasted data has similar measures and dimensions as historical data representing daily, weekly, monthly, and annualized revenue, ADR, occupancy, rate category, channel, arrival/departure dates, lead time, length of stay, loyalty contribution, and dimensions.

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As part of its recent data integration into CBRE’s Hotel Horizons forecast, Kalibri Labs and CBRE conducted an analysis to identify markets and submarkets that accurately reflected today’s hotel supply density. The outcome of this assessment was the creation of 335 markets and 972 submarkets—substantially more tightly defined geographic boundaries than any previously used designations. In addition, each market was classified into one of nine location types to delineate more accurately between urban, suburban, and airport locations within primary and secondary markets, as well as small metro, rural, and resort/destination to avoid overlap between location types.

Mark Lomanno, senior advisor and partner at Kalibri Labs, and a long-time industry analyst of market-level performance commented, “The main advantage of these enhancements is a more refined and accurate assessment of market and submarket dynamics. Changes account for both supply and demand changes as well as all of Kalibri Labs advanced metrics. For example, no longer will those evaluating the Boston market have to combine the airport and downtown areas in one market Trendline report. And the ability to look at market demand by length of stay or to more accurately assess flow through and profit contribution is an important boon to real estate investors.”

“Anticipating future revenue performance for a hotel, submarket, or market is incredibly powerful, whether you are budgeting, monitoring an operating property, or evaluating an asset to buy, sell, or refinance,” added Estis Green. “We were asked by owners, operators, asset managers, and revenue teams if we could provide guidelines to assist in their efforts to underwrite and forecast for future periods. After a thorough research and development process, the Kalibri Labs team delivered and is well prepared to support the industry through this recovery.”

 
 


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