The latest edition of the Duetto Pulse Report, which tracks data from August 2021, shows that earlier predictions for a good summer for the U.S. hotel industry were spot on as industry records were broken thanks to leisure-driven Labor Day travel. And on top of that, Brand.com consumer search activity for the rest of the 2021 stay months remains high, giving hoteliers something to celebrate at last.
In terms of booking pace, new transient reservations and group blocks are off-the-charts for September and October, and on-the-books is also well ahead of last year in every month for the remainder of 2021. And perhaps more importantly, ADR for those bookings remains significantly increased.
However, the data shows interest starts to wane for December 2021 and that, except for October, there are double-digit increases in cancelations each month. And in terms of pace, while still up, it’s a more moderate level of growth in November and December.
For Latin America, the picture is not quite as rosy for the next couple of months. Web traffic for stay dates in September is high. But, it is trending negatively for November and December stays, and cancelations are up by 34 percent compared to last year—higher than any other region worldwide.
But it is not all doom and gloom; the pace for the next three stay months has been heading upwards for several months, and on-the-books is ahead of last year for the remainder of 2021.
“We aggregated user forecasts for hotels running on Duetto to glean some insights for the balance of 2021. The data shows that across the United States and Latin America, the projected occupancy percentages will remain relatively consistent in the low-60s from September through November, before dropping to an annual seasonal low of 50 percent in December,” said Lloyd Biddle, director of enterprise solutions at Duetto. “YoY ADR growth remains highly elevated through the balance of the year. Group demand growth outpaces transient demand growth from September to November, partially due to the low single-digit group occupancy base. We do not expect group demand to outpace transient in December with group occupancy falling to about 6 percent across the global region.”
Looking ahead to next year, Biddle added, “While 2022 budgets are yet to be finalized, a sneak peek reveals some interesting insights for 2022. The pent-up leisure demand surge this past summer and resulting record highs will be harder to replicate next year, and the shape of the seasonal occupancy curve in 2022, although higher, looks a lot more like 2021 than 2019.”