WASHINGTON, D.C.—AAA projects 45.1 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period from Thursday, May 22, to Monday, May 26. This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.4 million travelers compared to last year and sets a new Memorial Day weekend record. The previous record was set back in 2005 with 44 million people. Despite concerns over rising prices, many Americans say they’re taking advantage of the long holiday weekend to spend time with loved ones, even if the trips are closer to home.
“Memorial Day weekend getaways don’t have to be extravagant and costly,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “While some travelers embark on dream vacations and fly hundreds of miles across the country, many families just pack up the car and drive to the beach or take a road trip to visit friends. Long holiday weekends are ideal for travel because many people have an extra day off work and students are off from school.”
Memorial Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation
By Car: AAA projects 39.4 million people will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend. That’s an additional one million travelers compared to last year. Driving is the preferred mode of transportation during holiday travel periods, with 87 percent of Memorial Day travelers choosing to take road trips. This year, drivers have the benefit of cheaper gas prices. Last Memorial Day, the national average for a gallon of regular was $3.59. This spring, thanks to lower crude oil prices, gasoline prices haven’t seen typical seasonal spikes. With the unofficial start of summer kicking off the busy driving season, demand is expected to rise, and pump prices may creep up along with it. Gas prices typically peak in the summer and start coming down when schools go back in session in the fall.
For drivers who are renting cars over Memorial Day weekend, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Friday, May 23, is expected to be the busiest day for pickup. Hertz says the cities seeing the highest demand for rental cars include Orlando, Denver, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Miami, and Seattle.
By Air: Airports are bracing for another bustling holiday weekend. AAA projects 3.61 million air passengers, a nearly 2 percent increase over last year when 3.55 million travelers took to the skies. While this Memorial Day weekend isn’t expected to set an air travel record (that was set back in 2005 with 3.64 million travelers), this year’s numbers are projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 12 percent. AAA booking data (based on what travelers paid when booking Memorial Day weekend flights) shows domestic flights are 2 percent more expensive compared to last year, with the average round-trip ticket costing $850. Most of those flights are to popular destinations like Chicago, New York, Orlando, Denver, and Seattle.
By Other Modes: Travel by other modes continues to steadily rise post-pandemic. AAA projects 2.08 million people will travel by train, bus, or cruise over Memorial Day weekend, an 8.5 percent increase over last year. This category is now surpassing pre-pandemic numbers from 2018 and 2019, but doesn’t reach the record numbers of the early 2000s, when more people were choosing trains and buses post 9/11.
Cruising’s growing popularity is highlighted by the strong demand for Alaska cruises this season. Top domestic cruise destinations for Memorial Day weekend include Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau. Overall, travelers are turning to cruises in record numbers. Earlier this year, AAA projected that a record 19 million Americans planned to take cruises in 2025.
Holiday Forecast Methodology
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior, and position brand, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of April 14, 2025.
Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore, each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
